Jet Fuel Prices Have Jumped 71% Since the Iran War Began — Here's What It Means for Your Airfare

Jet fuel hit $4.28 a gallon on September 10, 2026, up 6% in a single day and 71% since the Iran war escalated earlier this year, according to Forbes. The spike has already cut global airline profit forecasts in half, pushed several carriers to slash winter capacity, and is driving holiday airfares well above last year's prices. Travelers hoping for a late-booking discount this year are likely to be disappointed.

Jet Fuel Prices Have Spiked Since the Iran War Began

Current jet fuel price: $4.28/gallon (Sept. 10, 2026) · Change since war began: +71% · Brent crude: around $101/barrel

Brent crude climbed to roughly $101.21 a barrel and U.S. crude settled near $96.05, according to CNN Business, while the U.S. national average diesel price hit a record $5.94 a gallon. Jet fuel has moved in lockstep, and Fortune reports that energy traders are bracing for further increases as the conflict drags on.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much

Share of global oil trade at risk: ~25% · LNG trade at risk: ~19%

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in early 2026 triggered Iranian attacks on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that carries roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne crude and petroleum products. Al Jazeera reports that Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have compounded the disruption. A brief reopening agreement in June sent prices as low as $72 a barrel, but renewed escalation has erased that relief, and the crack spread — the premium refiners charge for turning crude into jet fuel — is now running at a historic high of roughly $57 a barrel on top of the crude price itself. That combination is why jet fuel has outpaced crude oil's own price gains this year, and why airlines that hedge only against crude (rather than jet fuel directly) are still exposed to a widening gap between the two.

IATA Has Halved Its 2026 Profit Forecast

2026 industry net profit forecast: $23.0 billion (down from $41B projected, and from $45B in 2025) · Net margin: 2.0%, down from 3.9% projected

The International Air Transport Association's latest outlook, detailed in its June 2026 financial outlook, shows fuel costs rising nearly 40% year-over-year to $350 billion industry-wide, driven by jet fuel prices averaging $152/barrel versus $90 in 2025. Net profit per passenger is expected to fall to $4.50, half of last year's $9.10. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said airlines are "bearing the brunt of the fuel price shock" while trying to avoid destroying demand with fares that rise too fast.

Regional Winners and Losers

Hardest hit: Middle East (-$4.3B net loss forecast) · Steadiest: North America ($9.4B profit, down from $12.4B)

Middle Eastern carriers are expected to swing to a collective net loss as airspace closures and lost transfer traffic hit load factors, while Asia-Pacific and European carriers face higher costs from Gulf fuel import dependence. North American airlines, which hedge less fuel than their global peers, are passing costs through to fares more quickly but remain broadly profitable.

Airlines Are Passing the Costs Straight to Passengers

Airlines that have raised fees since spring 2026: Delta, United, American, Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska, Air France-KLM, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, ANA

According to Travel And Tour World, Delta raised first- and second-bag fees by $10 each and added a $50 jump on third bags (to $200), while American added a $150 surcharge on a third checked bag. All Nippon Airways now charges $386 in fuel surcharges on Japan–North America flights, up from $142 in March.

Bag Fees and Fuel Surcharges

Fuel now represents 31.4% of total airline operating expenses, up from 25.4% in 2025, per IATA's outlook — the single largest driver of the fee increases travelers are seeing at checkout.

Premium Cabins Aren't Exempt

United has extended its "pay for what you want" pricing — previously an economy-cabin feature — into premium cabins on long-haul international and transcontinental U.S. routes, splitting front-cabin seats into three fare tiers so it can charge more precisely for the same seat.

Ancillary Fees Have Overtaken Cargo as a Revenue Source

2026 ancillary revenue: $165 billion (+12.6%) · 2026 cargo revenue: $162 billion (+7.2%)

For the first time since 2019, airline ancillary revenue — seat selection, bags, upgrades, and similar add-ons — is projected to outgrow air cargo as a share of total industry income, according to IATA's outlook. That shift reflects a deliberate strategy: rather than raising headline fares as fast as costs are rising, airlines are increasingly unbundling the ticket further and charging separately for things that used to be included, which is part of why so many bag-fee and seat-selection changes have landed in the same few months.

Ryanair and Other Carriers Are Cutting Winter Capacity

Ryanair's move: FY2027 traffic target cut from 216 million to 214 million passengers

Skift reports that Ryanair will hold winter capacity flat year-on-year to limit exposure to unhedged fuel, a move it says could cut winter losses by €70–100 million. CEO Michael O'Leary has warned that some weaker-hedged European rivals may not survive the winter, according to RTÉ. Ryanair itself said jet fuel is running near $140 a barrel for its own purchases.

What This Means for Airfares Through the Holidays

Airfare increase, July 2025–July 2026: +25.5% · Thanksgiving fares: +13% vs. 2025 · Christmas/New Year's fares: +18% vs. 2025

A separate Forbes analysis found fall airfares running 39% above last year, effectively erasing the traditional post-summer "shoulder season" dip. Yahoo's travel desk notes that fares climbed every month through July, meaning the usual strategy of waiting for a sale has saved travelers essentially nothing this year.

How Travelers Can Respond

Recommended booking window: 2–4 months out domestic, 4–7 months out international

The Points Guy recommends booking as soon as you have solid dates rather than waiting for prices to drop, since Google flight data shows Thanksgiving fares typically bottom out around 35 days before departure and Christmas fares around 51 days — both later than most travelers can safely wait if seats are limited. Going.com's guide also points out that Friday is typically the cheapest domestic departure day and Sunday the most expensive, so shifting travel dates by a day or two can offset some of this year's fare inflation. If your itinerary includes a long-haul international leg — say, a first trip to a city like Tokyo — booking early matters even more, since international routings are seeing the steepest surcharge increases.

What to Watch Next

Key swing factors: Strait of Hormuz shipping security · winter fuel hedging ratios · U.S. midterms (November) and other elections in 40+ countries

IATA's outlook flags 2026 as an unusually consequential election year, with more than 40 countries voting and outcomes likely to shape fiscal and energy policy responses to the fuel shock. CBS News is tracking the Hormuz situation in real time, and any durable de-escalation there is the single biggest lever that could bring fares back down before next summer.

People Also Ask

Why are flights so expensive right now?
Jet fuel prices have jumped 71% since the Iran war escalated, hitting $4.28 a gallon in September 2026. Airlines are passing much of that cost to passengers through higher base fares, new bag fees, and fuel surcharges, while some carriers are also cutting capacity, which reduces seat supply on many routes.

Will airfare prices come down before the holidays?
Unlikely in the near term. Fares have risen every month since spring 2026 and are running 25–39% above last year depending on the route and season. Most travel analysts recommend booking now rather than waiting for a sale that hasn't materialized this year.

How much has jet fuel gone up in 2026?
Jet fuel averaged around $90 a barrel in 2025 and is projected to average $152 a barrel for 2026, according to IATA — an increase of nearly 70%. Prices have been volatile, briefly falling to $72 a barrel in June before climbing back above $140 after renewed conflict.

Which airlines have raised fees because of fuel costs?
Delta, United, American, Southwest, JetBlue, Alaska Airlines, Air France-KLM, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, and All Nippon Airways have all raised checked-bag fees, added surcharges, or restructured fares since spring 2026 in response to rising fuel costs.

Is it still safe to fly despite the Middle East conflict?
Commercial flight disruptions have mostly involved rerouting around closed airspace rather than safety incidents for scheduled passenger airlines. Airlines and governments continuously update routing and airspace advisories, so travelers with itineraries near the region should check official advisories before departure.

When is the best time to book holiday flights in 2026?
Data suggests Thanksgiving fares bottom out around 35 days before departure and Christmas fares around 51 days out, but with fares elevated and rising all year, most experts now recommend booking 2–4 months ahead for domestic trips and 4–7 months ahead for international trips rather than waiting for those windows.

Facts checked against sources current as of September 11, 2026. Fuel prices, fares, and airline policies are changing quickly amid the ongoing conflict — confirm current pricing and advisories directly with your airline before booking or traveling.